Tuesday, February 3, 2009

The Obama Administration has the Wild Card on all Financial Markets, Rules and Regulations




The new administration is supposed to unveil more information in the coming the weeks on the financial markets with President Obama putting together more fellows of his tax dodging dream team. Fresh off signing the $800 Billion Dollar Economic Stimulus Package this guy is just getting started.

The Obama Administration has the Wild Card on all Financial Markets, Rules and Regulations. With "Main Street" folks upset and legislators campaigning for 2010 they are ready to attempt solving our past problems through new rules. No one in the industry really knows for sure what is going to the regulatory landscape post this financial crisis. When Executive salary for TARP money recipients was cut to 500k this was obviously getting too crazy.

Goldman Sachs Group (GS) even had a special Private meeting with all of their best clients to brainstorm ideas on what to do, and how to move forward from here.

Basically no one knows what type of regulations are going to be in the future.

Imagine playing poker with 6 friends a standard 52 deck of cards. Lets say that who ever has the queen of diamonds wins no matter what the other players have. How much would you bet if you did not have the card?

Then imagine if they changed the rules again, after you thought you had the wild card, slipped an ace from their sleeve, brought in new (printed) chips-depleting the value of your existing chips, and gave other players chips if they need to be bailed out due to making bad bets.

How much would you bet if you had a Royal Flush?

Treasury Secretary Timothy Franz Geithner stumbled at his coming out party last week to announce his intentions to create a plan to bring in private capital to solve the crisis in the credit markets. Aside from offering no real clarity or any actionable initiatives, Geithner showed the market no one really knows how to solve the problem of valuing these assets.

The administration needs to make sensible regulations that promote the United States Capital Markets as the world's best place to do business. The Private Capital needs to be sure of the rules of the game, and then they will begin to place their bets. The Financial Industry needs regulations that verify the custody of assets with third, fourth, and fifth parties. Many of the problems that happened with Madoff and Standford could have been avoided by simply verifying custody of the funds.

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