Always Leave em feeling Upset about what they Did, or Didn't Do.

There seems to be a natural tendency of the Financial Markets to preoccupy investors with the regret of past investment decisions. The Market will Always Leave many people feeling Upset about what they Did or Didn't Do. This Psychological burden is powerful if you let it trap you.

The Hindsight Bias and being able to see exactly what happened to your investment ideas you did not go through with, or actual investments you did not cut losses or take profits on, can create tremendous problems for traders.

Using the gift and curse of Hindsight I now realize The Market does not preoccupy investors and traders. Investors and Traders preoccupy themselves with these regrets. I was not being completely objective, and speaking from my own subjective view. Warren Buffett says "The Market is there to serve you, not to instruct you". The market is a 24-7 all you can eat Vegas Buffet. It is not your drill Sergent, dictator and decision maker. The market is a mirror of your mind, and what you are feeling inside. Its not a scary market. You are Scared.

If you allow the market to upset you about what you DID DO or DID NOT DO you cannot objectively observe the market in the present tense. Allowing feelings of past mistakes, losses, frustration, and failures into the present tense creates negative energy and a downward spiral of doom. Don't go there.

Letting Go of Fear

If we cannot trust ourselves to do the what is in our best interests and take action then we will always trade based on Fear. If we trade based on the Fear of Loss or the Fear of Missing out we will lose our money.

The only way to not be scared and be able to do what is necessary is to have the right set of beliefs. The beliefs we have about ourselves and the market determines our market experience. The right belief structure is key to getting what you want out of the market. Our beliefs about reality shape our own unique experience of the market. We need a belief structure that is effective in the market environment. For example: We believe when a trade goes against us, it makes more sense to sell it than come up for reasons on why it is not doing what we wanted to, hoping it does, and allowing ourselves to lose money.

We are forced to move towards evaluating ourselves and our own ineffective thoughts, beliefs, behaviors, and results. People do not always do what they intend to do, what is in their best interests and what makes just plain common sense.

It all Comes down to the choosing to create the conditions that allow you to trade without the negative constraints of Fear. The choice is yours. If we can see the person we want to be in our mind, and have the courage to step into the present and act accordingly we will be rewarded.

No Business is "Too Big to Fail". The Auto Industry Should NOT Be Bailed out.

The Titanic was not too Big to Sink. No Business can become "Too Big To Fail".

The Government has taken stakes in Banks and Insurance Companies using the Federal Balance Sheet to supply Private Interests with Capital and Liquidity. The Government is now getting called on from everyone for a "Bailout".

Now the Automotive Industry wants to be bailed out. How much tax payer money should we risk? And how safe is this Money? Who really knows? General Motors, Ford and Chrysler all want to be next in line to receive a government Bail Out.

A Bail out may be justified in dire circumstances to prevent a systemic global financial collapse by providing emergency relief and intervention to markets, but not in the case of supporting an obsolete industry such as the automotive business.

Back 50 years ago it was very hard to break into the car business. That is not the case any more. Technology and telecommunications has enabled manufactures to survey suppliers around the globe to find the best value on components. It is relatively easy to outsource the manufacture and production of vehicles. I could start my own car company for a sum of money significantly less than 10,20,30,40,or 50 years ago. Every year the process is likely becoming cheaper and cheaper. There are now literally thousands of car manufactures competing for your business all across the globe.

This is Good News for consumers who are ultimately going to get more value per every dollar they spend. And it is Bad News for companies in the business, more competition puts pressure on Margins. The car business is no longer a high margin specialty business. Technology and increased access to "turn key" design, fabrication, and production processes has changed the playing field.

In our New Global Economy it does not make any sense to subsidize and put on Life support business models of companies that are doomed to fail.

If the car companies wanted federal money they should need to do something that benefits all the members of our society such as electric cars, hybrids, solar, compressed natural gas, improved fuel economy, ect. They money should not be put into failing enterprises. The problem with the car companies is rooted in a failed business model. The last thing it needs is more money.

Money should be allocated to research, and development for companies that can create new industries, products, and sustainable jobs. Money should not be put into failing businesses and business models just for the sake of sustaining a business that is not profitable, and cannot be profitable at any time in the future without government support.

Please Get the Election Over With

Please Get this over with. We have 10 days left.

If you are a Black Man and you make less than 250k per year and you are voting for Mccain/Palin I have got absolutely no Respect for you. You need be voting Obama.

John Mccain is a War Hero. He says we are all his friends. I don't know anyone who really has that many friends. John Mccain is 72 and is the oldest man running for President ever. He's a Republican and so was George W. Bush who has one of the lowest approval rating ever. Making it nearly impossible for another White Man to be president for at least 4 years. John Mccain picked Alaska Governor Sara Palin as his VP. Palin looks very nice, but I can't believe that she is ready to be the President should something happen to Mccain. What exactly does the vice President do Mrs. Palin? Mccain is throwing the kitchen sink at Obama campaigning and nothing seems to be sticking. This campaign is still believes that Roe v. Wade should be overturned, Invade Iran, put more money into Iraq, help special needs kids, and "Drill baby Drill" to solve our energy problems. We use 25% of the Worlds oil and only have 4% in our reserves, that's not going to help much. And no one is gonna be drilling now for oil under $70 a barrel. At $145 it almost seemed smart.

The Economic Crisis, Trillions of Dollars of National Debt, Housing Meltdown, Various Government Bail Outs, Stock Market Declines, and Bitter People will fuel Obama to Victory. If you look at the polls you can see Obama will be the next president of the USA. The return to Populous Politics is bigger than either candidate.

Both Candidates have suggested we need to find alternative energy solutions with wind, solar, clean coal, nuclear, bio fuels, compressed natural gas, and improved fuel economy for existing sources of fossil fuels. Over History Candidates have spoke Large and Delivered small on actually solving our energy issues.

Barack Obama speaks well, Oprah Winfrey, Warren Buffett and Colin Powell have got his back. He is charismatic, energized and a master of rhetoric. He says he is ready Increase Taxes on Income, Dividends, and Capital Gains. Which is surely not going to help the struggling stock market. Obama does have some good energy and I think he could be a strong agent of change, but who really knows? I am used to seeing former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick on local TV being arrested. But he was the Hip Hop Mayor. Is Obama going to show up in the White House with a grill, rolling on 24s, blowing kush, and sipping on Colt 45 fighting off lawsuits from some hood rat Babys Momma? I don't think so. He is actually whiter than me. Barack Obama wants to tax the "Rich." Thats sounds ok with me today, but what exactly is Rich? It is a slippery slope. Once Obama starts taxing, when will he stop? Who knows? That's the drawback. He may tax and Spend like wild.

Get Ready for President Obama in 2008.

Back on Track

Thanks to doing what I know to work, I have recovered about 10% from my large draw down. Thanks to some nimble trading in AAPL computer Put Options I am clawing my way back. Having the confidence in your ability to do the right thing is key.

After my draw down I was losing that confidence. I took a break and did some sleeping in during a few days. I then came to the market refreshed, objective and ready.

Working Harder through a draw down is NOT the way to go. This is the path to Disaster. I have been down that road before, and its not where you want to go. Put some distance between yourself and the market. Obviously what you are doing is NOT working.

Negative Emotions such as Fear, Anger, Greed and Frustration projected from your Brain that shapes your observation of the market is not going to return anything positive into your account. These Emotions are carried around by losing traders. I allowed myself to be influenced by them to my own demise before realizing an effective way to operate in the market environment.

Positive Emotions such as Happiness, Confidence, Peace, and Acceptance are projected from your Brain to the Universe will allow you to see the market more clearly and honestly. These are the Emotions that equip the attitudes of Winning Traders.

If your Trading Charged with the Negative Emotions I would bet you are going to losing money and your mind. If you are Trading Charged with the Positive Emotions you are ready to succeed, get laid and get paid.

Burned Out

After Over Trading Dow Jones Index Futures for approximately 16 hours per day over the the last 10 Wild Trading Days I have made then Lost Thousands of Dollars. Notice that no new updates were made to the blog during this time. I literally could not take my eyes off the screen.

I am taking a minute off until I feel refreshed and ready to trade again.
After talking with one of my friends I realized that I can be 100% and alert for 8 or 9 hours hours no problem, but as for 16 I am not a machine.

Today I lost a thousand dollars by putting in an order to short and not realizing the order came back marked "Too Late too Cancel" and that the order was indeed filled. I did not have my usual audio alerts on and missed the sounds of the notice and the order. I placed the order, realized it sucked and then clicked on cancel order. I went back to staring at screens looking at graphs. When I glanced over at my account balance I noticed it was moving (I was flat) and lower than before. It took me a while to realize that I was filled Short Dow Jones Index Futures as the market was Ripping up and Rallying. After I came to my senses I covered. I did what anyone would do then, I called my Broker to complain.

I spent so much emotional, physical and financial energy lately trying to force trades and make more and more money as fast as I could. I had no litmus test for when to cut myself off. I did not recognize and consider my physical performance or personal happiness. I suffered a draw down over the last 10 days of Negative -27.35% from my accounts peak and all time futures trading high balance. Money Which I had in my possession and did not take proper profits on.

During this time I broke my own rules on Risk Management and Position Sizing. I neglected The Mathematics of Trading, and I did not keep detailed records of my trades.

Don't feel bad for me. This was my fault. I take full responsibility.
Don't worry about me. I know what needs to be done. Happy Trading.

NAV now $323.06

This is sadly the last NAV post I will make on this Blog. Due to varying investment terms with each individual share holders it is no longer be applicable. I may continue to post my personal Net Asset Value price after speaking with my legal counsel.


I hit $354.29, and stabilized at $323.06. The reason is because I have only been going Long and Short on Options only for the fund. These past weeks the implied volatility on the options purchased was so expensive on some of my losing trades I could not get back all of the gains. My draw down from my accounts peak was 8.8%. This is a bit embarrassing for me. I bought some Spy calls and got smashed on the High implied volatility prices I paid. My Trading is always more profitable in the second end of the month because I go Net Long or Short Delta using puts and calls in front months contracts. Options prices will be coming down slightly due to a lower time value component. I am looking forward to the end of this expiration cycle.

The Thin Line Between Success and Failure

In Life there seems to be a thin line between Love and Hate. Anyone who has been in a relationship can testify to this fact. One minute you and your girl are kissing, cuddling and pledging your undying love for each other. The next minute she is screaming at you, slapping you across the face, and saying how much she hates you.

As Winthrop says to Valentine in the movie Trading Places "In the Pits you make No Friends and Take No Prisoners. One minute your Up half a Million in soybeans, the Next they are repossessing your Bentley and your Kids aren't Going to College".

In Trading there is a very thin between Success and Failure. The reason for this is because a Trader can choose to take a position size that is too large just one time, and this will undo months and even years of good decisions.

This is similar to the saying that reputations can take a life time to build and only minutes to destroy. Lets say you did everything right in your life, then one Sunday you are at church and decide to drop your pants in front of the congregation and put your testicles on the shoulder of some nice old lady. One bad decision like this and everything good you have done will be long forgotten. You will forever be seen differently by everyone due this extreme act of perversion.

When Traders are Trading at home by themselves they have nothing but their own rules and discipline as their safety net. All it takes is one time not following these rules to lose everything you have worked so hard for. At Professional Trading Firms the Risk Manager will make sure you don't lose too much money, and will cut off your trading before you lose too much of your allotted equity. At Home Traders Do Not have anyone else to prevent us from Self Destruction.

The thin line between Success and Failure comes down to what you choose to focus on. The people who fail focus on how much money they can make, and how fast. The Traders who succeed focus on Managing Risks, and Following their plan.

The Profits, Winnings and Money Making will care of themselves if you focus on just managing the Risks in Trading. This approach seems backwards to people who have not developed the right Trading Psychology. They feel that if they don't primarily focus on Making Money they will miss it. This is exactly why most Traders lose their money.

The Successful Traders always welcome more and more idiots to the Game who are drawn by the lure of Big, Fast, and Easy Money.


In the End all we can do is take responsibility for ourselves and our own actions. In Trading we are all Lone Wolves and we do not really have any "friends" in the traditional sense of the word.

Many Firms and Friends Disappear due to the Wild Markets

Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Indy Mac Bank are Gone. Merrill Lynch was merged with Bank of America by the Federal Government. AIG was taken over by the Federal Government. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are now Commercial Banks.

If such drastic changes can happen to the largest financial companies the damage it can do to individual investors and traders can be far worse.

My friend AL the "investor" had build a great stock portfolio made up of stocks like FCX, RIO, TRA, TNP, VIP, CSCO, EMC, STP, GE, BYD, TIE, DSX, ABX, NEM, ect. He told me these were "Good" companies. He believed he owned "good" companies because the Media may cover or mention such names more frequently. He has never read the financial statements of these companies. He was emotionally attached to the idea of these companies, and would say things like "they have good assets". When we first met he told me he used both fundamental and technical analysis. After many meetings with AL trying to convince him to invest money with me, it was clear that AL had fallen in love with his portfolio. He thought he had put too much work into his stock portfolio to sell some of his holdings. Every time I suggested to sell a stock based on Technical Analysis he would argue with me the selling was overdone, and it should be supported around a certain level. I was not convinced. Anything Bearish that I would say about the markets he would refuse to believe. Being Wrong was too uncomfortable for him to confront. He had no risk management. He let large percentages of his stock portfolio move against him. During the Bull Market his portfolio performed very well.

My other friends who considered themselves "Traders" suffered far more traumatic and larger losses than AL in this volatile market. These Traders have lost virtually all of their funds, and perhaps even more if they were operating using burrowed money. The mistake these Traders made was not using effective risk management methods. They made a prediction that the markets would bounce, got long, added to their losing positions, and watched their accounts deplete themselves. I went long around the same time as some of these Traders, recognized I was wrong, and covered my positions after my max loss limit was hit. I was obviously concerned for the financial fate of my friends, and gave the best advice I could. Ultimately people make their own decisions, and these Traders chose their fate. My Phone calls and text messages to these Traders have not been returned.