Thursday, July 17, 2008

Wow What a Rally!-This is NOT the Bottom

We knew the rally was coming. We covered up our short positions yesterday. But who could have predicted the magnitude of this bounce? Wells Fargo Corporation with better than expected earnings sent a jolt of rocket fuel to the market. The Market should enjoy a nice rally here over the coming weeks. This is totally normal in the context of a longer term Bear Market. The Testimony from the Senate Banking Committee laid out some new proposals for regulating naked short selling, Oil Drops on a much larger than expected build in inventories, and Financials stocks rallied very hard. The Bottom of the Market will be called by many market pundits here. We are by no means out of the woods, as fundamental economic conditions have not changed. However with the government talk of surveying short sellers, possibly eliminating the uptick rule and the Massive amount of short positions, this was a great time to take profits. Commodities, Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas stocks sold off hard, and people moved money into the Financial Stocks that have been so beaten down. I am switching my short term bias to being long for now. I trade what the market gives me, not what I want to happen.

All I really have to say about today is "Wow-What a Rally! But This is Not the Bottom." For Nimble Traders the market is providing a good opportunity to get long here, just do not get married to your positions. For Long Term Investors this is the time to hold and then sell some stocks off into the next rally. The Bulls won the most recent battle but the War is Far from over.

1 comment:

Jason Johnson said...

Agreed! Good to see what you're doing Ray. I'm sure you don't miss AMP :)

Peace.